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2023.11.25

Polyethylene: October import and export growth rate differentiation

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According to customs statistics, in October 2023, China's polyethylene imports in the month of 1.2441 million tons, a decrease of 2.31% from the previous month, an increase of 7.37%. Among them, LDPE (tax code 39011000) imported about 285,700 tons, an increase of 3.97% compared with the previous year, an increase of 12.84%. HDPE (tax code 39012000) imported about 493,500 tons, an increase of 4.91% compared with the previous year, a decrease of 0.92%; LLDPE (tax code 39014020) imports of about 444,900 tons, a decrease of 8.31% from the previous quarter, an increase of 14.43%. In October, domestic demand was flat, the supply side had increased pressure, the internal and external arbitrage window was closed, the impact of superimposed transportation and some overseas equipment maintenance, and the number of imports fell.

In October 2023, the proportion of the top ten source countries of polyethylene imports changed little, and Japan squeezed out Russia into the top ten. The United States accounted for 277,700 tons of imports, an increase of 7.01% from the previous quarter, accounting for 22.69%; Saudi Arabia ranked second, with a total import of 206,000 tons, a decrease of 16.63% from the previous month, accounting for 16.83%; The third place was the United Arab Emirates, with a total import of 134,400 tons, a decrease of 1.47% from the previous quarter, accounting for 10.98%. Four to ten are Iran, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, the cartels, Canada and Japan.

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In October, China's imported polyethylene statistics according to the registration place, Zhejiang Province continued to import 383,900 tons, accounting for 31.36%; Shanghai came second, with imports of 216,300 tons, accounting for 17.67%; Guangdong Province third, imports of 160,900 tons, accounting for 13.14%; Shandong Province ranked fourth, with imports of 158,200 tons, accounting for 12.92%; Fujian Province, Jiangsu Province, Tianjin Municipality, Beijing Municipality, Hebei Province and Anhui province ranked fourth to tenth.


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In October, China's polyethylene import trading partners, the general trade accounted for 86.07%, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous month, and the number of imports was about 1.0536 million tons. Import processing trade accounted for 8.33%, an increase of 6.25% from the previous month, and the number of imports was about 102,000 tons. Logistics goods in special customs supervision areas accounted for about 4.64%, a decrease of 19.66% from the previous quarter, and the number of imports was about 56,800 tons.


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In terms of exports, statistics show that the export volume of polyethylene in October 2023 was 64,600 tons, an increase of 3.01% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 10.28%. Specific products, LDPE exports of about 21,200 tons, an increase of 29.48%, an increase of 18.16%; HDPE exports of 32,100 tons, down 9.40% from the previous quarter, an increase of 26.93%; LLDPE exports were about 11,300 tons, an increase of 3.52% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 26.39% year-on-year. Domestic supply has increased, and demand is general, market digestion is limited, and export volume has increased slightly.


With the end of the traditional production season, the rebound in demand is limited, domestic enterprises plan to overhaul the device is not much, domestic supply is more adequate, foreign offer price arbitrage space is small, is expected to reduce imports in November. In terms of exports, geopolitical conflicts, overseas demand contraction, export demand marginal decline, an adverse impact on export growth, but the United States and some ASEAN economic prosperity has improved, superimposed on China's stable external demand policy support, is expected to change little in November exports.


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