In recent years, the domestic POM supply side changes, subject to the high cost, high energy consumption, high emissions and other multiple factors, some capacity planning projects are far away, but this year POM new projects have entered the trial, production track, the future POM many new capacity to be put into production, the supply side will appear a new situation.

First, current production capacity

As can be seen from Table 1, in 2023, some of the new POM production capacity will be concentrated, including Xinjiang Guoye 40,000 tons/year POM device, Hebi Longyu 60,000 tons/year POM device, and Tianjin Alkali Plant 40,000 tons/year POM device. After the new production capacity is fully released, the market share of domestic materials will gradually increase, and the market will face a more severe test.

Second, capacity distribution

From the perspective of regional distribution, the distribution of POM production capacity is relatively dispersed, which is located in East China, there is no new production capacity, and the total capacity accounts for about 29%; The capacity of North China, Northwest China and Central China accounted for the same proportion, about 18%, of which the new capacity of Northwest China was 40,000 tons, and that of Central China was 60,000 tons. In third place is the southwest region, accounting for about 17% of production capacity.

Third, new capacity in the future

From 2024 to 2027, China's new POM production capacity is expected to reach 290,000 tons/year. Among them, the new capacity will be 170,000 tons/year in 2024, among which Dalian Hengli and Tianjin Bohua mainly rely on their own local advantages, and they have rich coal and methanol integration devices. In 2025, 120,000 tons of new production capacity is planned, including Xinjiang Heart-to-heart POM plant and Yankuang Phase III POM plant. It is expected that by 2027, POM's domestic production capacity will reach 860,000 tons, with an average growth rate of about 8.97%. In the future, the supply side of POM shows a continuous expansion trend, and the surplus supply situation of low-end capacity will still be highlighted, and the high-end gap needs to be filled. It can be seen that the contradiction between supply and demand of POM in the future market will continue to deepen.

Fourth, the reason for production capacity

On the one hand, the high-end production capacity of domestic POM is relatively small, the supply is relatively short, and the POM terminal application field still needs to rely on a large number of imported materials, and the low-end production capacity supply of domestic POM is relatively excess; On the other hand, POM products have significant dividends in recent years, and due to the difficult replacement of product performance, domestic and foreign markets have long-term stable rigid demand, and economic performance is acceptable.

With the gradual release of POM new production capacity, domestic material traders trading pressure will increase, it is expected that the short-term POM market will fall first and then stabilize, the medium and long term will be weak.